WORKING DRAFT
WORKING DRAFT
4 OF 12
QUESTION 4
The ask
What just became true with AI that makes this viable today—and what does the simple math say about size? 1-3 paragraphs.
What you submit
01
Why-now paragraph — the capability or price line crossed on current models at current prices. Non-AI inflections are acceptable; frontier bets are not.
02
The simple math — customers × price × attach → revenue.
03
Comparable businesses — size real businesses that already exist in the space; come back with vetted models and the one lever you will move.
Example — sizing a comparable business
• Estimate the P&L — rent, headcount, customers, products, and margins.
• Ask the operator — how many employees, how long clients take, how many clients, churn, and source of clients.
• Come back with five vetted models that already exist.
• You'll look like the economics of an existing business, with one lever you can move.
Great looks like:
The why-now names a specific capability or price line that was crossed; the math is checkable in your head and ties to the default-alive P&L.
Risk
The why-now depends on AI frontier capability that does not exist yet or requires an R&D-burn profile that is not seedstrap-able.
Example · Aux Insights
Why now: AI makes McKinsey-grade work without McKinsey-grade headcount possible. Aux expects roughly 50% growth with zero added headcount because AI carries the analyst work (slide creation, data analysis, data aggregation).
Simple math: At roughly $200,000 per month per project, four concurrent projects approach $10 million in annual revenue.
Go deeper
Step one of Jesse's idea-evaluation funnel, including the Facebook-ads timing story.
A bottoms-up path to $10M ARR—how big for you, rather than TAM.