WORKING DRAFT
WORKING DRAFT
Example · illustrative numbers
What the business looks like in the 12 months after the $1M: a monthly build from consults to signed work, contribution, fixed opex, and EBITDA — and the line from breakeven to a $10M-EBITDA business. Numbers are illustrative for a fictitious NewCo.
Assumptions
$3,500 → $8,000
price per case
86%
contribution margin
~8 / mo
breakeven (signed cases)
Monthly build — 12 months
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consults | 10 | 17 | 27 | 33 | 40 | 47 | 53 | 60 | 67 | 73 | 80 | 87 |
| Signed | 3 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 26 |
| Price/case | $3.5k | $3.5k | $3.5k | $3.5k | $3.5k | $8k | $8k | $8k | $8k | $8k | $8k | $8k |
| Revenue | $10.5k | $17.5k | $28k | $35k | $42k | $112k | $128k | $144k | $160k | $176k | $192k | $208k |
| Contribution | $9k | $15k | $24k | $30k | $36k | $96k | $110k | $124k | $138k | $151k | $165k | $179k |
| Acq cost | $3k | $5k | $8k | $10k | $12k | $14k | $16k | $18k | $20k | $22k | $24k | $26k |
| Fixed opex | $15.6k | $15.6k | $15.6k | $15.6k | $15.6k | $30k | $30k | $40k | $50k | $55k | $60k | $70k |
EBITDA | ($20.6k) | ($5.6k) | $0.4k | $4.4k | $8.4k | $52k | $64k | $66k | $68k | $74k | $81k | $83k |
Price steps from $3.5k to $8k per case in Q1; volume and headcount scale together, so fixed opex rises as the top line does. Month 1 includes an $11k one-time setup. Exit run-rate ≈ $2.5M revenue, ~$1M EBITDA — the on-ramp to the path below.
The path to $10M EBITDA
| Period | Acquired / mo | Total / mo | Run rate | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 12 | 12 | ~$0.5M | breakeven |
| Q1 Year 2 | 20 | 24 | ~$2.3M | positive |
| Year 2 | 55 | 78 | ~$7.5M | ~$2.2M |
| Year 3 | 70 | 110 | ~$11M | ~$3.7M |
| Year 4 | 100 | 200 | $24M | ~$10M |
Target: 200 engagements a month at a 40% EBITDA margin = $10M EBITDA. Roughly one-third of the book spawns renewals and follow-on work at full fee.